ShuiEro ... from vague up to sometimes ;) crystal clear drop by drop ...

Knowing the distribution and abundance of species is critical for conservation, yet field surveys are often limited in their spatial extent. In this study, we use ecological niche models to infer the current and future distribution of New Caledonian Parakeets (Cyanoramphus saisseti), Horned Parakeets (Eunymphicus cornutus), and Ouvea Parakeets (Eunymphicus uvaeensis) in New Caledonia. In addition, we present a new method of assessing the population size of each species based on the relationship between local abundance and modelled habitat suitability. According to our estimates, there are 5708 (5048-6174) New Caledonian Parakeets on the main island of New Caledonia, distributed over an area of 2783 km(2), of which 1939 km(2) is forested. We estimate there to be 8690(7934-9445) Horned Parakeets, and their distribution extends over 3482 km(2), including 2162 km(2) of forest. In comparison, the Ouvea Parakeet has a very restricted range of 34 km(2) (most of which is forested), and a population estimated at 1730 (963-3203) individuals. Projections involving simulated climate change suggest that populations of New Caledonian Parakeets and Horned Parakeets may recede into areas at higher altitudes in the future, primarily along the central mountain chain of the mainland. It is difficult to predict how the Ouvea Parakeet will respond to the climatic changes forecast for Ouvea, as the species is expected to face climatic conditions in the future that are different from any of those currently experienced on the island. Our research demonstrates that the current reserve system in New Caledonia is unlikely to provide sufficient protection for parakeets. Hence, we believe that existing Important Bird Areas (IBAs) should be evaluated for their current and future potential as reserves.
Using ecological niche models to infer the distribution and population size of parakeets in New Caledonia (PDF Download Available).

The most important variable explaining the occurrence of New Caledonian Parakeets was forest cover within a 500 m radius, followed by precipitation seasonality . The species was predicted to occur in regions where forest cover was relatively high, and in regions that received consistent rainfall.